“The situation is desperate. It’s the world’s biggest serious question.”
Matthew Simmons, George W. Bush’s Energy Adviser
BEAR WITH ME HERE AND READ THROUGH THIS THEORY…..
IF YOU’RE LIKE 99% OF THE POPULATION, YOU’VE NEVER HEARD THE TERM “PEAK OIL”. I HADN’T HEARD IT UNTIL A FEW YEARS AGO. SINCE THEN, HOWEVER, MY WORLDVIEW AND BASIC ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MY OWN INDIVIDUAL FUTURE HAVE BEEN TURNED UPSIDE DOWN. WHETHER YOU’R'E 25 OR 75, A LAWYER OR AN AUTO MECHANIC, WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO READ WILL SHAKE THE FOUNDATIONS OF YOUR LIFE. EVERYTHING HAS COME FROM EXTREMELY THOROUGH ARTICLES AND INTERVIEWS LINKED TO ON THE SITE BELOW.
What is “Peak Oil”?
All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.
For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. “Peak Oil” is the industry term for the top of the curve. The peak will last for a year or so, at which time we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.
When will Peak Oil occur?
The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks. Generally, these estimates come from the government.
A more realistic estimate is between 2004-10. Unfortunately, we won’t know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year. It’s possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since.
The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance in an article entitled “A Revolutionary Transformation,” the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: “By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today”.
That sounds pretty bad, but, even if gas prices get high, we could probably still make ends meet, right? Why should we be concerned?
Because almost every current human endeavour, from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.
Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilisers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.
Oil based agriculture has been fantastic for food production. Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors and food storage and transport systems such as refrigerators and trucks. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the birth rate. As the birth rate went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.
Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so. Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically.
When Peak Oil occurs, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertiliser will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar. Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage.
Oil is also required for nearly every consumer item, water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defence.
Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.
This is known as the post-oil “die-off”. The term “die-off” captures perfectly the nightmare that’s at our doorstep. For a humorous portrayal of the die-off, read chapter 3 of Michael Moore’s most recent book, “Dude, Where’s My Country?”
“Die-Off”!
It’s exactly what it says on the tin. It’s estimated that the world’s population will contract to 500 million during the Oil Crash. (current world population: 6 billion)
What are my chances of surviving the “Die-Off”?
If you ignore the warnings, and don’t prepare, you have absolutely no chance of surviving.
If you pay attention, and start preparing, you have very little chance of surviving.
We all may as well accept were going to die during the crash. However, if enough of us prepare, then at least a few should make it and humanity will rise once again.
What About Alternatives, Solar, Wind, Hydrogen etc?
Too late, unfortunately. It would take us a minimum of 50 years to develop a food delivery infrastructure based on alternative energies. Peak Oil is going to occur within five. Even if we stopped all wars, and committed ourselves entirely to energy alternatives such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc, the best we can hope for is to soften the fall.
Oil accounts for 40% of our current global energy supply. There are no alternatives to oil that can supply this much energy, let alone the amount of energy we require to feed a worldwide population that is increasing exponentially.
Let’s briefly examine the commonly proposed oil alternatives:
Natural Gas
Natural Gas currently supplies 20% of global energy supply. Gas itself will start running out from 2020 on. Demand for natural gas in North America is already outstripping supply, especially as power utilities take the remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for existing jet aircraft, ships, vehicles, and equipment for agriculture and other products. Conversion consumes large amounts of energy as well as money. Natural gas also does not provide the huge array of chemical by-products that we depend on oil for.
Hydro-Electric
Hydro-Electric power currently accounts for 2.3% of global energy supply, compared with the 40% provided. It’s unsuitable for aircraft and the present 800 million existing vehicles.
Solar
Solar power accounts for .006% of global energy supply. Energy varies constantly with weather or day/night. Not storable or portable energy like oil or natural gas so unsuited for present vehicles and industry. Batteries bulky, expensive, wear out in 5-10 years. Photovoltaic solar equipment (US$4/watt) is about 15% efficient, giving about 100 watts of the 1 kW per square metre exposed to bright sunshine (enough for one light bulb). A typical solar water panel array can deliver 50-85% of a home’s hot water though. Using some of our precious remaining crude oil as fuel for manufacturing solar equipment may be wise
Wind
Wind power accounts for .07% of global energy supply. As with solar, energy varies greatly with weather, and is not portable or storable like oil and gas.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen accounts for 0.01% of global energy. Hydrogen is currently manufactured from methane gas. It takes more energy to create it than the hydrogen actually provides. It’s therefore an energy “carrier” not a source. Liquid hydrogen occupies four to eleven times the bulk of equivalent gasoline or diesel. Existing vehicles and aircraft and existing distribution systems are not suited to it. Solar hydrogen might be an option in some of the hot countries.
Nuclear
Nuclear is currently being abandoned globally. Its ability to soften the oil crash is very problematic due to accidents and terrorism. Many more reactors would be needed. Tons of radioactive materials to transport at risk to public. Nuclear waste disposal is still the major, unresolved problem, especially breeder reactors producing plutonium a nuclear weapon/ terrorist raw material, half-life contamination is 24,000 years. All abandoned reactors are radioactive for decades or millennia. Nuclear is not directly suitable for aircraft and vehicles. Adapting nuclear to make hydrogen or other fuels would be a huge, and energy-expensive project. Nuclear fusion is still not available, after 40 years’ research and billions of dollars invested.
Is It Possible That We’ve Already Hit Peak Oil and Are Now In the First Stages of the Oil Crash?
Yes. As stated above, we won’t know we’ve hit the Peak until a few years after we hit it. Global oil production has dipped every year since 2000, so it is quite possible the Peak has passed.
Ample evidence exists that we’re in the first stages of the Oil Crash. In 2003, the cost of food rose 16%-25%. Health care costs rose 15%. Education costs rose 20%. These are often excluded from measures of inflation because they’re considered “volatile”.
As of 12/03 the “adjusted” unemployment, which has been squeezed out of as much meaning as conceivably possible, still hovers in the 6% range. However, if you factor in the quality of employment, then the real numbers are closer to 12%-15%.
The rolling blackouts experienced in California, the massive East Coast blackout of August, and the various other massive blackouts that occurred throughout the world are further indicators that we’re in the first stages of the Oil Crash.
If the year 2000 was the year of Peak Oil, it means we have very little time to prepare before things completely disintegrate.
Why Haven’t I Heard About This On the News?
Here are 3 reasons:
1. 75% of the media (all newspapers, television and radio stations) are owned by 5 companies. Each of these companies is heavily invested in the energy industry. If they were to publicly announce the truth about Peak Oil, investment in the stock market would dry up, the economy would plunge, chaos would ensue, and the whole deck of cards would come crashing down before our leaders and corporate elite have a chance to secure their own well-being.
2. The ramifications of Peak Oil are so serious that it’s hard for anybody, including journalists and politicians, to accept it.
3. The average American may not be emotionally prepared to deal with Peak Oil. It’s a literal death sentence to much of our population as well as a figurative death sentence to the energy intensive American Way Of Life. When faced with such news, most people choose to “kill the messenger.”
How Are the Energy Companies Dealing With This?
They’re not. They can’t.
They’re merging and downsizing and outsourcing and not investing in new refineries because they know full well that production is set to decline and that the exploration opportunities are getting less and less.
The companies have to sing to the stock market, and merger hides the collapse of the weaker brethren. The staff is purged on merger and the combined budget ends up much less than the sum of the previous components. Besides, a lot of the executives and bankers make a lot of money from the merger. Since their making money off the situation, they are not going to go public with the truth.
Is It Connected With the Iraq & Afghanistan Wars?
George Bush, Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and Donald Rumsfeld are all former executives for large oil companies. They have known about Peak Oil for decades.
In the context of Peak Oil, the wars in the Middle East are not wars of greed. Rather, they are wars for survival.
You can expect the U.S. to invade Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia within the next 2-5 years. As you watch the news, you can already notice the hints are being dropped. “Iran has WMD” or “Syria isn’t cooperating in the war on terror” or “Saudi Arabia is funding terrorism”. “The war on terror will last for decades.” The stage is being set so that the American public will accept these future invasions.
And when (recently industrialised) China decides it needs the remaining oil as much as the U.S.?
World War III
What about other “westernised” countries like France? Don’t they need oil also?
America will likely be invading or attacking France at some point as well. Several high level officials in the Bush Administration are pushing for a plan to force nations to “choose between Paris and Washington.”
War with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, China, and France? Won’t that require a reinstitution of the draft?
George Bush recently approved a massive increase for the Selective Service’s 2005 budget. The Selective Service is currently undergoing a massive overhaul and has been told it needs to be ready to report to the president in June, 2005. This means you can expect a reinstitution of the military draft some time thereafter.
Essentially, every young man currently between the ages of 12 – 22 has been earmarked as a solider for future oil wars.
I think I’m going to be sick. . .
If we get rid of Bush, will that solve the problem?
Peak Oil’s happening with or without Bush. In fact, you may have the Bush administration to thank for the couple of extra years of cheap oil he’s robbing from the Middle East. This gives us in the U.S. some extra time to prepare for the post-peak Oil Crash.
The President, his administration, and most of our legislators have been reduced to ceremonial figureheads for the energy and defence industries. These industries control both parties.
None of the presidential candidates except Dennis Kucinich have publicly mentioned Peak Oil even once.
In other words, regardless of who gets elected, we’re on our own.
And, uh, the Patriot Act I, and Patriot Act II?
When food production plummets, the only way to control the population will be through the institution of a fascist style police state. The passage of the Patriot Acts are the foundation of that state.
What’s the government doing about all this?
It may come as no surprise to you that our leaders are doing more to exasperate the problem then they are to solve it. They’ve decided to make a last ditch grab for whatever recoverable oil is available. With control over the world’s dwindling supplies of recoverable oil, they’ll have the ability to choose who lives and who dies.
If you aren’t making over $200,000/year, our leaders don’t care whether you live or die. As an example, 40% of our troops from the first Gulf War are now disabled with Gulf War Syndrome. Many of the Reserve and National Guard troops that are now in Iraq have not been issued “side” arms or bullet proof vests. Our lives mean nothing to our leaders.
Furthermore, 40 of America’s 50 Senators are millionaires, with enough money to feed their families even if the price of food doubles, triples or quadruples. So even though they know about Peak Oil, its not like they’re going to be doing most of the suffering.
Remember, these are the same people who give us a colour coded chart, a roll of duct tape, and a war of dubious origins as solutions to terrorism.
As stated above, we’re on our own.
Isn’t This Just Another Y2K Disaster Scenario?
I wish Peak Oil was “Y2K Reloaded.”
Y2K was an “if”, not a “when”.
Unlike Y2K, we know that Peak Oil is going to happen. The only question is at what point between 2004-2020 will it happen.
Furthermore, oil is more fundamental to our existence than anything else, even computers. Had the Y2K predictions come true, our civilisation would have been knocked back to 1965. With time, we would have recovered.
But when the Oil Crash comes, our civilisation will be knocked back to 1765. We won’t recover, there’s no oil left to discover that could help us recover.
Y2K was “announced” in the mid 1990′s – a full 5+ years before the problem was due. Peak Oil will occur within 1 – 16 years, and we‘ve made no preparations.
The preparations necessary to deal with the Oil Crash will require a complete overhaul of every aspect of our civilisation. This is much more complex than fixing a computer bug.
Over the course of history, the world’s biggest disasters have never been “announced” ahead of time. The Great Depression, Pearl Harbour, 9-11, all could have been prevented if we’d been paying attention. Given the fact that the Oil Crash will be worse than all of these combined, it should come as no surprise that our leaders have opted not to warn us.
Unlike past “end of the world” scenarios, such as nuclear war, biological terrorism, and of course Y2K, Peak Oil is not a question of “if”. Peak Oil is a scientific fact. The only question is when.
Read through the articles on this site. Listen to what well respected energy industry folks like Matthew Simmons, King Hubbert and Colin Campbell have to say. Listen to what the energy industry is (quietly) talking about. Look at what they’re doing. Look at what Sweden is doing to prepare for Peak Oil. Look at all this in the context of U.S. foreign and domestic policy. Then decide for yourself if Peak Oil is simply “Y2K Reloaded”, “SARS: The Return”, “Cuban Missile Crisis II: Judgement Day” or if it’s something we need to deal with head on.
I’m an optimist. Peak Oil sounds too pessimistic for me to accept as reality.
I felt this way too for while. Then I realised the difference between an optimist and a fool.
An optimist looks at bleak facts and decides to make the best of the situation they can. A fool looks at bleak facts and decides to ignore them because they’re too upsetting..
If you’re an optimist, you’ll deal with the reality of Peak Oil in a realistic way that optimises humanity’s chance of surviving and building a prosperous post-oil civilisation. If you’re not willing to deal with Peak Oil in this way, you’re a fool who’ll be dead within 20 years.
I’m having trouble believing that a country as powerful as the United States is going to collapse.
That’s what people in Baghdad circa 1979 would have said about Iraq. It’s also what people in Moscow circa 1960 would have said about the Soviet Union.
We won’t be the first superpower to collapse. Rome, Sparta, Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union – all superpowers long erased from the map.
Keep in mind that throughout the history of humanity, living in a collapsed society is not uncommon at all. Even in contemporary times, billions of people are living in collapsed societies such as the former Soviet Union, Iraq, large portions of India, West Africa, Somalia, Liberia, the West Bank, Gaza Strip. etc. . .
Oil is the lifeblood of our civilisation. Without oil, our fate is the same as the hospital patient who loses all of their blood.
Those of us lucky enough to live in the industrialised world are like the cool kids who got invited to the big party. Unfortunately, the party’s over.
How can we best deal with Peak Oil as a society?
Peak Oil is going to happen. People are going to die. We cannot stop it. But we may be able to minimise the amount of suffering while maximising the chances of building a successful post-oil civilisation if we immediately come together as a species and do the following:
1. Stop all wars and other nonessential economic activity. Dedicate all our time and resources to developing energy alternatives.
2. Stop having kids. We can’t feed our current population. When the Oil Crash comes, things will go from bad to worse to nightmarish. More children means an increased demand for food we can’ produce.
3. No more pets. The food’s required to feed people.
4. Drastically cut our energy consumption. This means eating produce grown locally, investing in hybrid cars or substituting bicycles, limiting our purchase of consumer goods to the absolutely necessary, and no air travel unless absolutely necessary.
I’m scared. How should I prepare as an individual?
Well, first of all, it’s absolutely imperative you don’t succumb to a fear based consciousness. This may be difficult as Peak Oil is going to necessitate absolutely massive changes in our way of life. However, if we allow ourselves to be overtaken by fear, we will only exasperate the situation and duplicate the system that has brought us into this situation.
As for steps to take as an individual, when I first asked that question, the answer I got was: “Step 1: Imagine the absolute worst apocalyptic nightmare you can think of. Step 2: Think of how you would prepare for that situation. Step 3: Get to work.”
Personally, I recommend the first step to be educating yourself about Peak Oil and its ramifications. Then notify as many of your friends and family as possible. Seek out like minded people and come up with some type of a plan.
Unfortunately, I know very little at this point regarding how to survive without the amenities of modern civilisation.
If Peak Oil is too much for you to worry about, feel free to ignore the facts and stick your head in the sand. But remember, when you stick your head in the sand, you leave your ass exposed for the world to kick.
Is there anything positive about Peak Oil?
Its hard to say that there’s a “bright side” to Peak Oil, but here goes:
Most of us in consumer based countries like the U.S. are actually very nice people. In our hearts, we really do believe in ideals such as equality, brotherhood, and justice. We would never abuse, mistreat, or kill somebody just to get something of theirs. However, to support our oil based lifestyle, our government goes out and does these things for us.
If the average American knew the amount of suffering that went into producing every piece of plastic in their home, every gallon of oil in their gas tank, and every piece of food on their dinner table, they’d likely be sick to their stomach and be willing to do whatever it takes to change things.
Peak Oil will force us to change things. Peak Oil does mean the end of the world as we know it. It also means we have a chance to create a new world in which humanity lives in harmony with itself and the earth. Such a lifestyle is no longer simply “the right thing to do”. It’s now a necessity if we wish to survive as a species.
Evolution and biology?
In every species, the “over adapted” members tend to die off and be replaced by simpler versions. In the case of humanity, hyper-industrialised western societies will become extinct, while simpler, more peaceful ones will continue, and a very few will scarcely falter.
Peak Oil may be nature’s way of turning man’s traditional conception of “survival of the fittest” on its head. Traditionally, we’ve defined evolutionary-social fitness by looking at things like cunning, military strength, ability to dominate etc. But the societies that survive the Oil Crash will be those that define fitness by looking at more benevolent traits, not the least of which is the ability to control what your leaders do with your taxes.
I was born in America, grew up here, and have no desire to go anywhere else. While I love it here, I also recognise that America has done some pretty atrocious things. Regardless of your political outlook, the unfortunate truth is we used forced labour to build our nation on stolen land. (So did other consumer based, oil driven nations, and they’ll be crashing too).
Matthew David Savinar
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
NET ENERGY
It takes energy to make energy. We use energy to find and pump oil but, luckily for industrial society, oil has huge net energy and we can usually obtain more than 200 times the amount of energy required for its’ extraction. Oil has the highest net energy return of any fuel; gas, coal, wind and solar all have dramatically less. Hydrogen has negative net energy meaning it takes more energy to produce it than it contains, this highlights the first problem of a hydrogen society.
http://evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=550
IN YOUR FACE
- Connections between Dick Cheney’s Energy Task Force, 9/11 and Peak Oil “On the Table”
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/013004_in_your_face.html
MAPS AND CHARTS OF IRAQI OILFIELDS:
CHENEY ENERGY TASK FORCE
http://www.judicialwatch.org/071703.c_.shtml
